I’m very confident that Internet marketers and video content producers can use YouTube to make 2012 presidential election predictions. And, by that, I mean you can use YouTube to make accurate 2012 presidential election predictions.
How is this even remotely possible?
According to RealClearPolitics, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 47.9% to 46.9% if you average out the latest national polls. But according to the FiveThirtyEight Blog, Obama leads Romney 50.3% to 48.7% if you average out the latest national polls.
And as we all learned in high school, the winner of the popular vote won’t determine the outcome of the United States presidential election in 2012. The winner will be determined by the Electoral College, which doesn’t even have a football team!
So, if you go back to RealClearPolitics, you’ll see the outcome of the election will be determined by 11 toss up states: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). But, if you go back to the FiveThirtyEight Blog, you’ll see the winner of the election will be determined by only seven toss up states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. If we don’t even know how many swing states there are, how can we possibly make 2012 presidential election predictions?
To get a sense of just how close this election will be, I went knocking on doors on Saturday in Concord, NH. I met a couple who give new meaning to the old term, “mixed marriage.” He was for Romney and she was for Obama. Do you think their children will grow up undecided?
With all this uncertainty, how can anyone to the left of Fox News or the right of MSNBC say with even a modest degree of confidence that Internet marketers and video content producers can use YouTube to make 2012 presidential election predictions?
Well, according to YouTube Trends, close to 600,000 videos mentioning Obama or Romney had been uploaded to YouTube and these videos accounted for close to 2 billion views as of Aug. 27, 2012. Although this data hasn’t been updated in months, I don’t think you need to wait until the last vote is cast on Nov. 6 to determine 10 of the YouTube winners of one of the biggest tent-pole events since the 25th anniversary of “Shark Week” was celebrated this summer by the Discovery Network.
PoliPop, YouTube’s 1st Entertainment & Politics Network, Will Win Big
Many of these YouTube winners have been hidden in plain sight for months. For example, PoliPop has been giving politics a good lickin’ since February. It features a new “Caffeinated with John Fugelsang” video every Tuesday and live debates every Thursday.
The most popular video on the PoliPop channel is “GLEASE ft. ALPHACAT & OBAMAGIRL! (SERIES.LY #1-Glee/Grease parody) ,” which features ObamaGirl and Alphacat together for the first time in a parody of Grease and Glee.
Why am I so confident that PoliPop will win big in the 2012 election? There are three key reasons.
First, PoliPop is YouTube’s first entertainment and politics network. So, the new channel from Maker Studios got there “firstest with the moistest.”
Second, PoliPop has more network partners than you can shake a stick at. This includes: Bad Lip Reading , baracksdubs, schmoyoho, Rap News, PoliPopTV, The Amazing Atheist, Drinking with Bob, Mark Fiore’s Animation, LiberalViewer, How The World Works, Adam Kokesh, Alphacat, Steven Crowder, The Deal with Jack Hunter, Just A Man And His Crocoduck, Steve Berke Comedy, James Kotecki, and Fabian4Liberty. This means you can’t “hit ‘em where they ain’t.”
Third, PoliPop’s biggest potential competitors, “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” and “Colbert Nation” from Comedy Central, aren’t likely to launch their own YouTube channels until after their parent company, Viacom International, wins, loses, or settles its $1 billion lawsuit against Google and YouTube. What about “SNL Election Central” over at NBC.com? Hey, it hasn’t featured an entertaining skit about politics since 2008.
8 YouTube News/Politics Channels Will Win 2012 Election
For more examples of YouTube winners that have been hidden in plain sight for months, go to YouTube Politics. You’ll see the eight news and politics channels that were selected by YouTube on Aug. 22, 2012, when the YouTube Elections Hub was introduced.
In a post on the YouTube Blog, Olivia Ma, YouTube News Manager, said back then,
“In addition to videos from politicians and parties, a diverse range of news organizations—both established names in media and sought-after new voices—are sharing their coverage of the political process on the new hub. You’ll find live and on-demand reporting and analysis from ABC News, Al Jazeera English, BuzzFeed, Larry King, The New York Times, Phil DeFranco, Univision and the Wall Street Journal. Each will put their own stamp on the Presidential race—from the conventions to the debates to election night.”
So, it isn’t risky to predict these eight news organizations will be among the 10 YouTube winners of the 2012 election.
Who will be the losers?
Well, a number of other news and politics channels weren’t selected by YouTube for its new hub. This includes: The Associated Press , CBS News, Fox News Channel, PBS NewsHour, Reuters, RT, The Washington Post, and The Young Turks.
Can one of these channels pull off an upset? Don’t bet on it.
Unruly 2012 Election Tracker Will Win a Landslide Victory
During the primaries earlier this year, YouTube Politics featured an interactive chart that compared the number of views that each of the candidates had received over the past week or month. This chart disappeared when the YouTube Elections Hub was introduced on Aug. 22, 2012.
Fortunately, the Unruly 2012 Election Tracker was launched on Sept. 10, 2012. This interactive infographic tracks the number of shares each candidate’s video content receives across Twitter, Facebook and the blogosphere, using exclusive data from Unruly’s Viral Video Chart.
As of Sunday, Oct. 28, Obama had 52% of the total shares (6,536,722) and Romney had 48% (5,927,390). When you break this down, Obama had 68% of the ads shared on blogs (5,154), 86% of the ads shared on Twitter (583,496), and 50% of the ads shared on Facebook (5,948,072). By comparison, Romney had 32% of the ads shared on blogs (2,412), 14% of the ads shared on Twitter (94,210), and 50% of the ads shared on Facebook (5,830,777).
Romney’s ads had 56% of the comments (137,858) but 39% of the views (35,017,551). Obama’s ads had 44% of the comments (108,485) but 61% of the views (55,522,569).
The Unruly 2012 Election Tracker also shows the 10 most shared ads over the last 7 days for both candidates. With no serious challengers in sight, I predict this infographic will win a landslide victory.
Too Early to Call
Finally, let me close with a bipartisan video that was featured in YouTube Trends over the weekend, “‘Vote Like That’ 2012 Election Song - The Ron Clark Academy.” The students perform a parody of Cher Lloyd’s "Want U Back" designed to encourage everyone to vote.
This video may or may not be a winner in the 2012 election. Frankly, it’s still too early to make an accurate prediction.