Let's face it, people, for some unknown reason, want HTML 5 to crush Flash. But as far as I'm concerned, it just won't happen and here's why.
Here are my top 5 reasons why HTML 5 won't kill Flash.
1. Robustness - The Flash video player is far more than just a simple video player. It's a tool that, when wielded properly can give you massive amounts of flexibility and power. With features like 3D effects, advanced text support, hardware acceleration and dynamic streaming...Flash is way ahead.
2. Conformity - HTML 5 is a long way from completion. The HTML 5 tag is going to need a lot of work and support before it can comete with Flash. Additionally, there' the question of browser support and video file formats which it is not doing anything to fix at present.
3. Comfort - Flash is everywhere. Everyone knows about it and rarely does anyone who doesn't have it, have a problem installing it. Sure there's nothing to install for HTML5 (when it will be available) but it will require people to upgrade browsers or use specific ones to see videos on certain pages. Far more work than just downloading and installing the Adobe Flash Player.
4. Speed of Updates - HTML 5 has been in the works for how long? They're expecting it to be ready when? Right! Meanwhile Flash Player hit version 10, will probably hit version 11 prior to HTML 5 ever getting down to being fully approved and maybe even v12 before widespread use.
5. Corporation Giants - Moving away from any piece of software for a corporate giant is well, generally shied away from. So for a major corporation to change over from Flash to HTML 5, it's going to be a godo amount of resources, manpower and money. Frankly , I just don't see it happening in this economic climate. On top of that can you answer, even for a small company "why should be move away from a proven solution?"
OK, I've got a sixth reason - There's nothing wrong with Flash. Yes it's a pain to work with at times, yes it can have some issues (like their idiotic new Get Plus powered Adobe download manager that works for shit) and yes you generally have to pay to play in regards to development for it. But really, if you're just making videos to show specifically on the web and only need the most basic of features, then moving to HTML 5 and learning a whole new game is just not prudent. Everyone is pressed for time and money, we all have very important things to do. To stop one of them and take on a new learning process for something, well most of us just won't be into that.
But HTML 5 does have one thing going for it. When it does finish the approval process and when browsers start to support it, you can bet that there will be a massive rush of developers incorporating it into things like WordPress, page templates, website constructors and the like. Who knows, maybe they'll come up with more robust ways to use it without having to actually learn all about the tag, it's properties, elements and potential values. Maybe they'll be able to build in additional features with AJAX, PHP and the like.
Or maybe, just maybe, we'll all keep using Flash... Let me know what you think of the new HTML 5 potential.