Online advertising sales were predicted to grow by a whopping 18% for 2009 by ZenithOptimedia who recently revised their numbers down to around 4.8%. eMarketers also had a nice 8.9% increase predicted but today halved that to 4.5%
Other firms who have yet to revise their numbers are still predicting double digit growth for the market this year. They include:
- BMO Capital Markets – 13%
- Collins Stewart – 10.1%
Several others are just below the 10th percentile Morgan Stanley (9.7%) and Jefferies & Co. (6.9%).
Some firms haven't got the rose-coloreds on and are predicting near zero but still predict growth Barclay's Capital (2.3%), Myers Publishing (2.9%) and ThinkPanmure (3.0%). On the other side of that line are three firms that are calling for losses with UBS who published their numbers in February, predicting a 6% decline.
What's it means for you?
Well if you're a publisher it means that there's less revenue to be had and the same amount of places for it to go, that means more work to get less of it. Meanwhile if you're and advertiser it could be a totally different ballgame. Prices could be falling (as has happened with television) meaning slots become more affordable allowing your ad dollars to go further. A wise move by those who don't want their bottom lines hit too hard this year but will it work?
If you're advertising let us know what you think. Are you spending less or more? If you're publishing are you seeing the well dry up in some areas or cost-per-X falling?